![]() Every back three shares certain characteristics, but every manager has to figure out how their personnel can best deal with the new issues presented by a bottom-heavy formation. Simply shifting to three at the back won’t suddenly solve a team’s problems. Instead, the balance of attack and defend has broadly remained the same it’s the responsibilities of individual players that’s changed.įrom Mourinho on down, we still don’t quite know how to talk about the formational change that’s sweeping the game. While the implications of a shift from four to five defenders might seem obvious-just do the math-the actual effects of the shift don’t match up. By the end of the season, the goal-scoring rate should rise to the levels of the past two years. Teams are averaging only 4.03 shots per game on target, down from 4.33 last season and 4.3 the year before that, despite basically taking the same kind of shots. The slight dip in goals seems mostly related to a league-wide conversion slump. ![]() But the number of shots teams have taken has remained mostly steady with squads averaging between 12.8 and 12.9 shots over the past three seasons. Goals have ticked slightly downward, with teams averaging 1.27 per game this season after averaging 1.40 last year and 1.35 the year before that. Yet, despite that rise, and despite Mourinho’s claim, the league isn’t necessarily getting more defensive. Go all the way back to 2010-11, the dawn of modern soccer stats, and only 1 percent of all Premier League teams lined up with three center backs. Last season, that figure was 18 percent, and in 2015-16 teams lined up that way only 4 percent of the time. According to Michael Caley, this season in the Premier League, teams have started some form of back three/five 30 percent of the time. However, Mourinho’s point about the rise of defensive systems with three center backs and two wingbacks is unquestionably true. The rest of the league could decide to play with 10 at the back and it wouldn’t change Mourinho’s approach: building unbreakable, attack-shattering defense is what Mourinho focuses on no matter the opponent. This time, the omission was any acknowledgement of Mourinho’s career as a staunchly conservative manager. “Two teams try to match each other and play the same system and it’s 0-0 or 1-0.”Īs with all his trolling, Mourinho’s pronouncement is a cleverly balanced mix of a truth, arguable assumptions, and important omissions-all in the service of making himself look good. many teams try to play with five at the back plus two or three in the middle,” he said. “I think the Premier League is becoming defensive. On September 17, after his Manchester United demolished Everton 4-0, he praised himself, telling reporters that he took a huge risk by playing an attacking lineup.
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